In Batteries We Trust
paulkrugman.substack.com
A break for some good news

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/28133646

The war goes on, and so does the global energy crisis. In fact, I believe that prices of oil futures remain too low given how much spot prices will need to rise to resolve the shortages that will hit once oil supplies that were shipped before the Strait of Hormuz was closed are exhausted.

But a better future is coming, despite Donald Trump’s assault on renewable energy as he tries to drag us back into the fossil fuel past. Regardless of Trump’s chest-thumping, America is not the world. We account for only 15 percent of global energy consumption, compared with China’s 28 percent. And the rest of the world is moving rapidly to renewables, thanks to a technological revolution in solar power, wind power, and, less visibly, batteries.

So let me take an optimism break and talk about why batteries may save the world.

The decline in battery prices has been incredible. It’s like nothing anyone has ever seen before. Big, strong men with tears in their eyes come up to me and say, “Sir, have you seen the progress in batteries?”

Why does this matter?

[ … ]

Furthermore, we’ve seen rapid progress in all components of the green energy transformation, even though their underlying technologies have little in common. Solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries are very different, yet all have seen revolutionary improvements. This strongly suggests that the whole renewable energy complex is experiencing a virtuous circle: ever-growing use leads to falling costs and falling costs lead to ever-growing use.

[ … ]

So although we are now in the midst of a severe energy crisis that could easily go on for many months, this too shall pass. A better, cheaper, cleaner energy future is on the way, and not even Trump can stop it.

  • HaraldvonBlauzahn@feddit.orgOPEnglish
    0·
    5 days ago

    Europe has a role in this:

    Furthermore, we’ve seen rapid progress in all components of the green energy transformation, even though their underlying technologies have little in common. Solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries are very different, yet all have seen revolutionary improvements. This strongly suggests that the whole renewable energy complex is experiencing a virtuous circle: ever-growing use leads to falling costs and falling costs lead to ever-growing use.

    If we ask where this virtuous circle is taking place, the answer is, largely in China with an assist from Europe. And the corollary is “not in America.” The United States has allowed itself to be far surpassed by China and is now only a peripheral player in the renewable revolution. Fortunately for the rest of the world, this means that the Trump administration’s hostility to renewable energy, its attempts to sabotage progress, won’t stop that revolution or even noticeably slow its momentum. True, Trump’s anti-green, pro-pollution tilt will serve to leave America further behind, but progress in fighting climate change and reducing the risks of global dependence on oil will continue.

      • HaraldvonBlauzahn@feddit.orgOPEnglish
        0·
        5 days ago

        Actually, the progress in solar energy since that, based on fundamental research, automation, battery technology, and so on, is a stunning testimony to human cooperation and ingenuity, like the Covid vaccine. Twenty years ago, the opportunity we have now was hardly imaginable, the technology we have now would have sounded like pure science fiction.

        • HaraldvonBlauzahn@feddit.orgOPEnglish
          0·
          5 days ago

          Oh, and then we have this brilliant high-tech invention.

          Actually, it was first devised by a German polymath in 1817, when Europe had just experienced a “year without summer” after the explosion of a big volcano in Indonesia, which led to lack of sunlight, bad harvests, a food crisis. and famine in Europe. As the (unconfirmed) legend goes, this was also affecting horses, and he sought for a way to replace them.

          I am sure that if ever empathic aliens would visit planet Earth, they would like the story, much more than the pictures of Hiroshima and Vietnam.