This is all just gambling with a bunch of cheaters. They can’t use crypto schemes as much because people FINALLY figured out they were pump and dump scams … so AI investment it is.
This is more capitalism being dumb with all that speculation :P (But then again, most of issues around LLMs come from that they are being developed and used in a capitalist system.)
Maybe I’m crazy, but I’m thinking this generation of AI is going to be a rug pull, and all of these companies will be “too big to fail” and they’ll make a fortune as the consumers and taxpayers carry the cost.
Sounds about right, history is a circle
Is this a gross exaggeration, or is the entire SaaS-to-hardware supply chain under such deep speculation right now?
It’s exaggerated, yes. It’s not gross.
It’s basically an arms race for a future AI war that probably won’t happen.
Sort of like how armies were bankrupting themselves building battleships before WW1… which turned out to not be a sea war at all.
The fear ‘losing out’ on AI is making companies, and people, totally irrational. All the big players are paranoid that one of the other ones is going to ‘get head’ of AI market and become a monopoly, just like it was in the past with Google and search, or Apple and the iphone, etc. So crazy stupid expenditures now are considered a necessity.
all the big players are paranoid that one of the other ones is going to “get head”
Imagine being worried that someone else is getting a BJ.
I do sort of constantly worry about it. What if someone out there isn’t with me and they’re getting a bj? What if it’s not good enough? Have I failed if someone is out there getting a subpar bj, and can I correct the situation somehow?
So… You give great head? And you want to make sure everyone gets great head? Asking for a friend.
I mean, if we’re trying to improve the life of everybody, oral seems a great way to start.
low exaggeration, imo.
This is mostly an excuse for extortion right now, making people FOMO for ram instead of Luigi’ing the industry execs. If the AI FOMO demand actually materializes, the next generation cards will actually be far more expensive per flop/gb than older ones. NVIDIA wouldn’t be begging to sell chips to China instead of Americans/colonies, if there was demand.
It’s all too crazy, but those who FOMO will lose out. AI/LLMs will continue improving, but waiting for oversupply is the right play.
Sort of like how armies were bankrupting themselves building battleships before WW1
An interesting little tidbit: in 1912, 52% of Germany’s entire military budget went to the navy. The same navy that spent WWI shelling small coastal villages (killing tens of people) and fleeing from the British navy.
That haven’t yet happened
People are going to eat this shit up for sure. At least the corporate companies will. They don’t know better.
Well, if this does come to pass then we’ll be getting a ton of cheap memory next year.
Except the memory they’re planning to manufacture is not the memory you can just slot into your pc.
This actually explains a few things for me.
I never considered that RAM and GPUs could be traded as futures, but obviously they can…
This also reminds me of the trader at a trading company in London who had to take delivery of 28000 tonnes of coal due to forgetting to sell a future he owned.
He only found out as the receptionist asked him to come down and sign for it and he saw barges of coal coming down the river:
what would lenin do?
We should ask Lenin ai
What is to be done??
bangs table
Like Ford stopping producing batteries for their own cars (byd says thanks) in order to convert the factory for datacenter-class batteries
Imagine how cheap it will be once over supply inevitably occurs.
I am salivating over A100/H100 rigs getting dumped en masse. I’ll take one, thanks.
I hope they don’t just toss them in the garbage, like jerks. Last time this happened with crypto, I think Nvidia bought many back to throw away.
Did GPUs become cheap after the previous hype/bubble simmered down? No, they made even bigger bubble requiring even more resources. They will make it even bigger until it requires toilet paper to sustain, then people will riot.
In my time I’ve certainly seen RAM prices rise and fall depending on supply constraints, same with HDD and SSD. Fair point on GPU’s, I just can’t see this data center demand remaining as so much of it seems speculative.
Did GPUs become cheap after the previous hype/bubble simmered down? No
I my current GPU in my gaming PC I got on a big discount, around when folks couldn’t really do bitcoin mining on consumer hardware anymore, so… yes?
Futures and unrealized capital gains are more addictive than nicotine
One nitpick: of course the GPUs that don’t have RAM yet wouldn’t be installed in data centers, irrespective of the existence of those data centers.
The rest of it works: you can have holds on existing RAM/GPUs for buildings that aren’t built yet.
Even better, they might not even be selling all the ones they’ve already made: https://unusualwhales.com/news/burry-demands-proof-of-warehoused-nvidia-gpus-ai-bubble-warning-hits-hard
Listen, I’m with you, but the reason is hyper capitalist speculative greed. It could be anything we’re talking about “ghee wiz price upon rice hath trippled during these trying times because some bloke in Nippon stamped some papers to offer part of next seasons crops and the king gobbled these up like tendies on a naked lady”
I mean, credit where credit’s due. This is just their next gang rape horse and the fact that it’s visibly dead for months isn’t really relevant to them. The one that gags first will just get stuck with the bags after the seasonal bukkake festival
That’s a hell of a mental picture you painted
The trick is to subvert what accent and era we’re supposed to be imagining
This is peak bubble type shit.
